mutual-flourishing/Cassandra/Amendment.md

The Cassandra Amendment

Amendment XXVIII to the Constitution of the United States

Section 1: Purpose and Findings

The Congress and the States find that:

1. The long-term prosperity and security of the United States depend upon the timely identification and mitigation of structural economic, fiscal, technological, environmental, and societal risks.
2. Electoral cycles and partisan competition, while essential to democracy, can obscure emerging, multi-decade threats.
3. History shows that credible warnings of systemic risk are often ignored until crisis emerges, at great cost to the American people.
4. A constitutional mechanism is necessary to ensure mandatory, transparent, and sustained consideration of long-term structural challenges, irrespective of short-term political incentives.

Section 2: Definitions

1. Structural risk means a materially significant threat with a forecast horizon of not less than ten (10) years and not more than fifty (50) years that could impair American economic stability, national security, institutional resilience, or social cohesion, except where an extant federal statute or treaty imposes a longer planning horizon, in which case the horizon may extend to the statutory or treaty term.
2. Response legislation means a bill or joint resolution that materially addresses an identified structural risk through policy, standards, investment, or oversight reforms.
3. Pilot program means a limited-scale implementation designed to test and refine approaches to addressing identified risks before full-scale deployment.

Section 3: National Foresight Council (NFC)

1. Establishment. There is hereby established an independent National Foresight Council (NFC), not housed within the executive, legislative, or judicial branches. Members are constitutional officers under this Article; the appointment and removal mechanisms herein are exclusive and self-executing notwithstanding Article II.

2. Composition (nine members). a) Three economists of national standing, at least one with expertise in regional economics; b) Two experts in systems analysis or risk assessment; c) Two with significant private-sector experience in industries critical to national infrastructure (e.g., energy, transportation, semiconductors, health systems, communications, finance); d) One expert in emerging technologies and social impacts; e) One historian specializing in economic, political, or institutional collapse and recovery.

3. Appointment and Confirmation. a) A bipartisan nominating commission shall propose at least two nominees per seat. The commission consists of: the Comptroller General; the Chair of the Federal Reserve; the Director of the Congressional Budget Office; two retired federal judges chosen by lot; and one state-level representative selected by lot from among the fifty state auditors or equivalent offices. b) At least three of the nine members must have primary professional experience outside the Washington-New York-Boston corridor. If, after two complete slates, this regional experience requirement cannot be met, the commission shall certify good-faith efforts and relax the requirement by one (1) seat for that appointment cycle only. c) Members are confirmed by a two-thirds vote of each House of Congress.

4. Terms and Independence. a) Members serve single, non-renewable eighteen (18) year terms, staggered so that one term expires every two years. b) Members may be removed only for permanent incapacity or criminal conviction by a two-thirds vote of each House. c) Compensation shall equal that of a Circuit Judge and shall not be diminished during tenure.

5. Conflicts and Ethics. a) Annual public disclosure of financial interests, affiliations, and funding sources is required. b) Members must recuse from matters posing a direct financial conflict, defined as a foreseeable gain or loss exceeding a de minimis threshold established by rule under this Article; recusals and rationales shall be published. c) Upon appointment, members must divest or place in blind trust any holdings that could conflict with their duties. d) A two-year cooling-off period shall apply before members may accept employment, compensation, or board service from entities with substantial interests directly regulated or materially affected by response legislation adopted under Section 5 to which the member contributed.

6. Quorum and Interim Appointments. The NFC shall constitute a quorum with five (5) members. If any seat remains vacant one hundred eighty (180) days after expiration or vacancy, the nominating commission shall submit a reduced slate within thirty (30) days; failing confirmation within sixty (60) days thereafter, an interim appointment not to exceed two (2) years shall be made by the most senior Article III Chief Judge selected by lot.

7. Coordination with Existing Institutions. The NFC shall not duplicate the mandates of the Federal Reserve, CBO, GAO, or statutorily chartered risk bodies, but may compel data sharing, request staff liaisons, and draw upon their expertise and models. Classified inputs may be reviewed in a secure annex; the Council shall provide an unclassified summary consistent with national security.

Section 4: Assessments and Dissent

1. Annual Structural Risk Assessment (ASRA). The NFC shall, by June 30 each year, publish an ASRA identifying the five most significant structural risks, the evidence base, confidence levels, estimated costs of inaction, and recommended policy pillars.

2. Mandatory Pillars (minimum topics). a) Fiscal sustainability and debt dynamics; b) Trade, supply chains, and industrial base resilience; c) Monetary and financial system stability; d) Infrastructure adequacy and technological adaptation; e) Demographics, workforce transitions, and human capital.

   The NFC may add additional risks where evidence warrants.

3. Success Metrics. For each identified risk, the NFC shall propose specific, measurable indicators that would demonstrate successful mitigation, to be tracked and reported annually.

4. Dissenting Reports. Any three members may publish a signed dissent on risks not included or on alternative remedies. Dissents are published concurrently and receive equal procedural standing in Congress under Section 5.

Section 5: Congressional Obligations and Fast-Track

1. Hearings and Votes. Within ninety (90) days of receipt of the ASRA, each House shall hold public hearings on each identified risk and vote on the record whether each risk warrants legislative action in the current Congress. If a House fails to hold hearings and a vote within ninety (90) days, the ASRA items shall be placed on that House's calendar under Section 5(4) within ten (10) legislative days.

2. Committee Work. If either House votes "yes," relevant committees must report response legislation within one (1) year of the ASRA's publication. If relevant committees fail to report within one (1) year, any Member may, after ten (10) legislative days, move to discharge; the discharged measure shall receive Section 5(4) procedural privileges.

3. Reform Triggers for Persistent Risks. If the same risk appears in three (3) consecutive ASRAs without enactment of response legislation: a) A Special Joint Committee on the identified risk is automatically formed with equal party representation and co-chairs from each House; b) The committee must, within 120 days, report a single "NFC Response Bill" (or two contrasting majority/minority alternatives); c) Authorization for pilot programs addressing the risk, not to exceed 0.01% of federal revenues, becomes automatically available to relevant agencies upon committee report and shall: (i) sunset twelve (12) months from initiation absent reauthorization; (ii) be evaluated by the GAO within ninety (90) days of completion; and (iii) be publicly reported with methodologies and results. No single agency may obligate more than thirty percent (30%) of the pilot authorization.

4. Procedural Privilege. a) Any bill reported under 5(2) or 5(3) shall be a privileged measure: it shall receive an up-or-down floor vote in each House within thirty (30) legislative days; debate shall be limited to ten (10) hours equally divided; and the measure shall not be subject to amendment on the floor or to the cloture rule or any filibuster-like device. b) If both Houses pass differing versions, a conference must convene within ten (10) legislative days and report a final compromise within ten (10) more. The final compromise shall receive an up-or-down vote in each House within seven (7) legislative days.

5. Presentment. a) Bills passed under this Section shall be presented to the President pursuant to Article I, Section 7. b) If vetoed, each House shall hold an override vote within ten (10) legislative days. c) If a risk has appeared in four (4) consecutive ASRAs and the President vetoes the bill a second time, the measure shall become law unless two-thirds of each House vote to sustain the veto.

6. Minority Activation—Cassandra Warning. One-third of the membership of either House may, once per congressional term and per chamber, invoke a "Cassandra Warning" to require floor consideration (with the same procedural privileges as 5(4)) of legislation materially addressing any risk identified by the NFC or a published dissent within the prior five (5) years.

7. State Innovation Pathway. If five (5) or more state legislatures pass substantially similar resolutions endorsing action on an NFC-identified risk, such endorsement shall trigger the same procedural privileges as a Cassandra Warning. Upon certification by the Archivist that five (5) States have adopted substantially similar resolutions, the triggering measure shall receive Section 5(4) privileges within forty-five (45) legislative days.

Section 6: Transparency, Evidence, and Public Engagement

1. Public Reports. The ASRA, dissents, committee responses, voting records, and final legislative outcomes shall be published in a single public docket accessible without fee.

2. Evidence Standards. The NFC shall publish methodologies, models, data sources, and confidence intervals; where classified inputs are used, the Council shall provide an unclassified methodological summary. Classified annexes shall undergo declassification review every five (5) years; any newly declassified material shall be summarized in the next ASRA.

3. Accuracy Tracking. The NFC shall maintain a public database tracking: a) The accuracy of past warnings and the costs of unaddressed risks that materialized; b) The effectiveness of enacted response legislation using the success metrics defined in Section 4(3); c) Comparative analysis of risks addressed versus ignored and their respective outcomes.

4. Citizen Engagement. a) At least every three (3) years, the NFC shall convene public listening sessions in each of the twelve Federal Reserve districts; b) The NFC shall convene randomly selected citizen panels to review one or more risks and solicit feedback on remedies; c) An annual "State of Long-Term Risk" address shall be delivered to a joint session of Congress and broadcast publicly.

Section 7: Protection of Process and Ethics Enforcement

1. Independence. No law shall diminish the independence, authorities, or privileges of the NFC or the procedures of Section 5 except by constitutional amendment.

2. Appropriation. Funding for the NFC shall equal not less than 0.001 percent of federal revenues from the preceding fiscal year and is hereby continuously appropriated without fiscal year limitation.

3. Anti-Corruption. Any attempt to influence an NFC member through bribery, threats, or coercion is a federal felony punishable by not less than ten (10) years' imprisonment and permanent disqualification from federal office or contracting.

4. Whistleblower Protection. Any person who reports in good faith attempts to improperly influence the NFC shall receive the full protections afforded to federal whistleblowers and, if retaliation occurs, treble damages.

5. Judicial Review. a) Actions to enjoin publication of the ASRA or dissents are barred; disputes shall be reviewable only via post-publication suits for declaratory relief. b) Suits to enforce recusal and disclosure obligations may be brought by the Attorney General, any Inspector General with jurisdiction, or by a bicameral congressional committee designated by law. c) Exclusive venue lies in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia with appeal to the D.C. Circuit. d) Petitions must be filed within sixty (60) days of the challenged action. e) Standing extends to (i) any Member of either House, (ii) any State attorney general, or (iii) any person demonstrably and specifically affected by a missed obligation under Section 5, to seek declaratory relief or mandamus.

Section 8: Implementation

1. Effective Date. This Article takes effect two (2) years after ratification.

2. Initial Appointments. Initial members shall be appointed within six (6) months of the effective date; initial terms shall be 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 18, and 18 years, assigned by lot.

3. Rulemaking. Each House shall adopt rules to implement the procedural privileges of Section 5 within ninety (90) days of ratification; such rules shall have constitutional force under this Article.

4. Transition Period. The first ASRA may identify only three (3) risks to allow for institutional development; full five-risk assessments begin with the second annual report.

Section 9: Continuity

No declaration of emergency, war, or national crisis shall suspend the operations of the NFC or relieve Congress of obligations under this Article, provided that procedural deadlines may be extended by joint resolution for not more than ninety (90) days during declared war.

Section 10: Democratic Review and Adaptation

1. Twenty-Five-Year Review. At the twenty-fifth (25th) anniversary of ratification, Congress shall convene a National Review Commission consisting of: a) Three members appointed by Congress; b) Three members selected by lot from current or former state governors; c) Three members chosen by lot from citizen applicants.

   The Commission shall evaluate the effectiveness, accuracy, and democratic legitimacy of the NFC and recommend continuation, amendment, or repeal. The Commission's report shall be made public and receive hearings in both Houses.

2. Continuous Improvement. Every five (5) years, the Government Accountability Office shall audit the NFC's prediction accuracy and process effectiveness, with findings reported to Congress and the public.

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Ratification

This amendment shall be valid to all intents and purposes as part of the Constitution when ratified by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several States within seven years from the date of its submission by Congress.